The attack of radical sectors of the “Movimento ao Socialismo- MAS” (Socialism Movement, Evo Morales’s party) to the Bolivian ex president’s house, Víctor Hugo Cárdenas, will be able to make modifications in the local politic scenery. On March the 8^th, a group of peasants invaded and burned Cardenas’s residency with his family inside, luckily they were able to escape.

 

After this fact, the ex president announced he would run for president in the elections of December. On the contrary of other indigenous leaders, Cárdenas has national projection and for that, converted himself in reference for the opposition. In the recent referendum about the new constitution, he supported the “no” to the modifications.

 

Cárdenas pretends to be the leader of the indigenous people’s vote of middle class. According to the local press, the ex vice president classifies the actual government’s vision about indigenous people as racist and classisist. To his understanding, an indigenous doesn’t necessarily have to be poor nor illiterate.

 

According to those considerations, Cárdenas dreams in building an ideological proposal of national unity. He is as well, a strong critic of the Plurinational State defended by MAS, that according to his evaluation, is an anachronistic, fundamentalist and anti historical vision.

 

Different from the rest of the candidates, Víctor Hugo Cárdenas has possibilities of confronting Evo Morales. The ex vice is a respected intellectual and was a pioneer in the fight for the indigenous rights in Bolivia.

 

The months that precede the electoral dispute in the country are tense. There are rumors about ex-president Carlos Mesa’s house (2003- 2005) being a target for the radicals of MAS. The opponents evaluate that it would be a strategy to inhibit the opposition’s action during the elections.

The president of Bolivia, Evo Morales, said that “too much fat is damaging” his Peruvian colleague, Alan García, who joined Haya’s International Court of Justice with a demand about maritime limits against Chile. For Bolivian’s Chief of State, García is looking to improve his political image through this action.

 

According to Efe agency, Morales’s critics were done during his speech in the city of Cochabamba, during the presentation of titles of properties of lands and peasants. “Maybe too much fat is affecting the president of Peru, Alan García, and he’s not well informed. Bolivia is never going to resign the return to the sovereign sea”, he affirmed.

 

The president remembered that Bolivia did not resign to have an exit to the sea and says that the subject is being discussed in reunions with the Chilean government. In Evo Morales’s evaluation, the demand presented by Peru in Haya affected one of the solutions analyzed with Chile so that the country could obtain and exit through the Pacific.

Polls indicate that the ballot box “Yes” won the “No” constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The result was expected, based on the results that President Evo Morales`s popularity indicated.

According to the polls, the victory is around 60% against 40% . However, some mass media reported that the result was tighter: 51% to 49%. This last result is less reliable. 

The “yes” won in the provinces of Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro and Potosi while “no” won in Beni, Pando, Tarija and Santa Cruz de la Sierra. 

With this result we can expect a scenario of institutional difficulties, since it needs to approve the arrangements for implementation of the new Constitution in the National Congress, as well as political instability among the winners and political opponents. 

Controversial points of the new Constitution will be posted soon in this blog. 

P.S.: Comments are welcome.

Bolivia has suffered even more turbulence in 2008 than Venezuela. But contrary to what happened with his neighbor and mentor, Evo Morales managed get out stronger in 2008. Through subtle, efficient negotiations, Mr. Morales managed to pacify his seemingly fierce opposition, at least for the time being. By dealing personally with many representatives, Mr. Morales managed to obtain from the Congress the approval he needed for his constitutional referendum. For this victory to come to pass, Mr. Morales enjoyed key affirmative votes of the opposition itself. This situation caused the Podemos, the main oppositionist party, to crack apart.

 

All attentions in 2009 will be drawn to the referendum scheduled for the 25^th of January, when president Evo Morales will try to enact the country’s new constitution. Mr. Morales successfully reversed the trend in support of the opposition and is now anticipated as the winner of the people’s referendum.

 

After that, the political forces in Bolivia will carry their agendas with a view to the presidential elections of December. Since the country’s political agenda is likely to dwell at political issues, the impact of the financial crisis may pose a serious obstacle.

Divided and with little mobilization power, the strike called by opposition in Tarija did not create much of a stir. A total suspension of activity was expected in the department that holds the largest natural gas reserves in Bolivia.

 

However, the decision by Evo Morales’ government to take civic leaders, involved in attempts against the gas line in September’s conflicts, into preventive custody has the potential to reorganize and reunite regional opposition.

 

The opinion of local political analysts is that the use of force indicates a lack of authority. Through this, the more radical department representatives, who have rejected agreements signed with the government, have an opportunity to gain new supporters.

 

The Executive power has made yet another mistake. Each time that force is put in use, it creates signs of debility. In addition to mobilizing opposition, it creates space for the emergence of new political players.

 

As a consequence, the opinion is that in 2009 the government will not have a simple outlook ahead, as it will be facing a unified opposition. In addition, President Evo Marales’ adversaries know that a joint effort in the constitutional referendum in January will be easier than in the general elections in December, when all of the players will choose to be candidates, causing difficulty in the construction of collective objectives.

 

For all these reasons, the referendum campaign tends to be very intense. Even with the power of the machine and the support of social movement on behalf of the government, the scenario is indefinite. Research shows that around 20% of voters are undecided. Therefore, the current trend is that the victory of “Yes” or “No” to the new Constitution project will be by a marginal difference. 

Bolivia lives a scenario of tension with the U.S.. The President Evo Morales last month expelled the American ambassador in La Paz, Philip Goldberg, and the end of last week suspended the operations of the U.S. Department of Drugs (DEA). In both cases, alleged political interference in favor of their opponents. 

Barack Obama will have a big challenge in Bolivia. Even promissing to seek dialogue with the region, Morales will use nationalist sentiment as a way to promote social movements that support him politically. It is still uncertain as is the relationship between the two nations.

His influence on social movements and the power of his government give Evo Morales a competitive edge over the opposition in the run-up to the referendum. Unlike a few months ago, the Bolivian Chief of State has never been so close to “re-founding” his nation.

 

Domestically, the opposition is expected to become more isolated. The Podemos, the main opposition party, may have led the agreement, but some regional leaders are angry. Thus, it is still unknown how opposition departments will react. There could be a truce until the vote, but after that there’s no way of projecting what can occur.

 

When trying to prevent an opposition split-up, the Mayor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, said that this is the moment for a broad front to unite and challenge the government. But the Mayor of Beni, Ernesto Suárez, believes that the subject of autonomy was treated in the agreement in a way that betrayed the regions.

After many deadlocks, government and opposition have reached an agreement on the new Constitution. A referendum has been scheduled for 25 January 2009. If the new Magna Carta is approved, general elections will be advanced to December next year. Key to this difficult negotiation was President Evo Morales’s commitment not to run for yet another term if he is re-elected in 2009. With the agreement, Morales will leave office after finishing a new five-year term.

 

From now on, Evo Morales will be closer to the so-called “Bolivian re-foundation”, his main campaign promise. If the new constitution is approved, the economy will see greater State intervention, and also more rights to Indigenous peoples. Also foreseen are concessions for regions governed by the opposition (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Chuquiasca).

 

These are the main changes in the new Constitution:

Re-election: The new Magna Carta provides for the possibility of immediate re-election just once.

Autonomy: Three government tiers will be instituted – departmental, municipal and indigenous. Army, police, central bank and foreign policy continue in the hands of the central government. Other responsibilities will be devolved gradually.

Rangelands: Big land owners will have to prove the “economic and social” utility of their land. Before that, all rangelands areas would have been nationalized. The January vote will set out a 5,000 or 10,000 hectare limit for unproductive land. 

The executive branch of Bolivia thinks oil companies are not necessary in the country if they do not want to abide by their investment commitments. The statement was made by the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy, Saúl Ávalos, in an interview given to broadcasting company Erbol. He recalled that now in Bolivia all commitments are to be fulfilled.

 

Ávalos said that if the companies refuse to implement their investments – US$ 900 millions for this year alone – the State will intervene to verify whether investments in the oil industry are in keeping with its projects.

 

The threat issued by the Ministry lands in an environment of fuel shortage affecting some regions in the country, a situation that has been caused by declining investments in the oil industry.

 

 On the other hand, oil companies justify lesser financial investments due to the country’s political instability in recent years, tax reforms and the nationalization carried out in mid 2006.

After several standoffs between government and opposition over the new constitution referendum, Bolivian political parties decided to form a committee to discuss and attempt to weave a consensus. The committee was announced by Bolivia’s vice-president, Álvaro García Linera. As a result, the congressional session scheduled for last Friday in which the referendum call would be voted was adjourned.

 

Both the chairman of the senate, Óscar Ortiz, and of the house of representatives, Edmundo Novillo, attended the meeting at which this consensus was formed. Both sides are to work relentlessly to attempt to break the many standoffs created in recent months.

 

Negotiations will be reviewed at every 48 hours by representatives of both sides in order to avoid recurring issues. According to Mr. Linera, the time has come for the political forces to take an accountable stance and debate their way out of the institutional crisis.

 

The committee will be comprised by the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the Social and Democratic Power (Podemos), the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) and the National Union (UN).

 

The launch of this committee is a key initiative of Evo Morales’ government. However, the Bolivian leader has failed to demonstrate the political ability necessary to bring the crisis to an end.

 

Compared to the government’s stance in past negotiations, this new initiative amounts to retreat. The million dollar question is knowing whether social movements that have backed up Morales will continue to rally in support or if there will remain a pressure for the approval of the new constitution. 

 
Welcome! Latin America is becoming consistently more important for the world. As the region becomes more stable, the world sees Latin America as a potential business area. In order to understand te potential Latin America has to offer, the world must understand the unique dynamics that the local politics function. This blog already exists in Portuguese since 2005 and is widely read. I believe it can be an important instrument to understand this amazing region. Suggestions, criticisms and opinions are welcome. + learn more

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