Brazil: Review of the second week of the presidential race

In the second week of the campaign you can see that the exchange of barbs between the candidates contesting the Presidential Palace has increased.

Jose Serra said: “Dilma is weaker than the PT” and that, unlike Lula, she will not be able to control the more radical wing of the party. Marina Silva has directed her main criticisms of the government to President Lula, saying that there is much waste of public resources with corruption.

Dilma Rousseff is getting good and bad news. The good news is that the PP has decided to put the infrastructure of the party (5154 municipal branches, 1.2 million members, 5,135 city councilmen, 555 mayors and 96 state representatives (state and federal) available to the former minister.

On the other hand, Dilma Rousseff was fined for the fourth time by the Electoral Court. During a public event on the bullet train that will connect Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo-Campinas, Lula praised the former minister. The electoral Attorney General, Sandra Cureau investigates if Lula used the machinery of government in favor of Dilma. Noting that she spoke theoretically, she said that this kind of gesture could result in the forfeiture of the candidate’s registration.

A statement by the Secretary of Revenue, Otacílio Cartaxo, also had a negative impact, where he said that the employee that accessed the accounts of vice president of the PSDB, Eduardo Jorge was identified. However, Cartaxo said he could not reveal the name. The opposition had filed a claim in the House asking for the details from the finance minister, Guido Mantega, including names, dates and times and motivation.

A source of embarrassment was the fact that the federal government distributed 215,000 leaflets defending voting for women. The material contained a speech from Dilma Rousseff. Although it was developed between 2008 and 2009, the material was printed only in May this year when Dilma was already confirmed as the pre-candidate of the PT.

But there were lapses on the part of the PSDB. Indio da Costa (DEM-RJ), Serra’s running mate, was fined for campaigning before the legal deadline. He also radicalized the struggle with the PT and accused the party of links with drug trafficking and guerrillas of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia).

Research from Datafolha and Vox Populi will be released this week, the first two since the campaign began on July 6. They will show who was more efficient until now.

Keywords:  Alan Garcia Alvaro Uribe Argentina argentinean government argentinean politics Bolivia bolivian crisis bolivian economy bolivian government bolivian politics Brazil Brazilian economy brazilian elections Brazilian Government Brazilian politics Chilean elections Chilean politics civil war in bolivia Colombia colombian government colombian politics Cristina Kirchner dilma rousseff Ecuador Evo Morales financial crisis Henrique Meirelles Hugo Chavez Latin America Latin American politics Lula Mercosur natural gas oil in venezuela Peru Peruvian economy peruvian government Peruvian politics political analysis Rafael Correa Thiago de Aragão Venezuela Venezuelan economy venezuelan government Venezuelan politics

Brazil: The Ideas of José Serra

1. Introduction

With the slogan “Brazil can do more,” José Serra presented himself as a candidate at an event organized by the PSDB, in Brasilia on April 10. Avoiding direct confrontation with President Lula, who boasts record levels of popularity, Serra has adopted the same “peace and love” style as Lula in 2002. In this line, during public events alongside Dilma Rousseff and Marina Silva, he said he would rely on the cooperation of the PT and PV if he wins the election in October.

Serra has criticized the government in a very timely way and signaled that the government intends to not only maintain but improve many of the programs of the current administration. Especially those that relate to the social area.

the former governor’s criticism of the government’s economic policies have led to caution in the market and speculation about maintaining the autonomy of the Central Bank should he win the race. During closure of the Forum Review (May 11), Serra accused the CB of being the “patron” of a “financial sieve” based on high interest rates and currency devaluations.

Below (in alphabetical order)is a summary of the PSDB candidate’s key stances on various topics since leaving the government of São Paulo and becoming a presidential candidate.

2. Public Administration

Positions.Serra spoke out against the appointment of heads of state and regulatory agencies by mere partisanship. The relationship with Congress will take place, preferably, on the basis of budgetary amendments.

Regulatory agencies.Defender of the agencies, Serra states that they lost their momentum in the current management. He said a major reason is the political subdivision of the agencies, a practice that he aims to break.

Privatization.Denied vehemently that he wishes to privatize. He says the PT is behind a lot of the “terrorism” on the subject. He accused the party of having “two faces” in regard to privatization.While the party condemns the practice nationally, local governments run by the PT continue privatizing.

Pre-salt.In his opinion, is a matter to be considered after the elections. The PSDB’s candidate prefers the concession model to sharing.He is against the creation of Petro-Sal. He said the responsibility for the oil in the pre-salt may be with Petrobras or the National Petroleum Agency. Although the current government advocates the sharing model, he sees no need to create a new company.

3. Education

ProUni.University for All Program, whose purpose is to grant full scholarships and partial scholarships in degree courses and sequential specific training in private institutions of higher education.Created by the Federal Government in 2004 and institutionalized by Law No. 11.096, on January 13, 2005, provides, in return, exemption of some taxes to educational institutions that adopt the program. Benefitting students graduating from public highschools or private high schools on the condition that recipients’ per capita income of up to three minimum wages. Serra intends to continue the program.

Elementary school.Improving the quality of education. For this, we must invest in teachers. You must have guides for teachers, materials for the student. You have to have incentives for good performance and set goals. It is necessary to establish the base salary.Those who meet their goals should get up to three additional salaries per year. That is, merit weighs in the differentiation of wages.

Technical education.”You have to pay attention to a major setback in recent years: the stagnation of education among adolescents.For this age group, although not exclusively for it, let’s push the technical and vocational education, that turns into jobs. Jobs for youth, which is burdened by a lack of opportunities to get ahead. And we will do it in a decentralized manner, in partnerships with states and municipalities, which ensures a link between technical colleges and local markets, where the jobs are generated. Teaching quality and moderate costs, allowing us to multiply by two or three more students in the entire country over a period of government “(José Serra, 10/04/10).

4. Municipalities

Meeting accounts.José Serra promised to make a settling of accounts over the debts of the federal government to municipalities and vice versa.According to the National Confederation of Municipalities, the municipalities owe to Social Security R$ 22 billion.The account is being charged federally withholding portions of the passing of the Municipal Participation Fund. Moreover, the INSS owes these local executives about R$ 26 billion.

Disasters in municipalities.Serra advocates the creation of a National Force to act in situations of disasters in cities.He said he would organize a permanent national force, which is prepared technologically and scientifically and in a preventative manner.

5. Economic Policy

Economic fundamentals.Floating exchange rate, fiscal responsibility and the inflation target, according to Serra, came to stay. No changes in case he is elected. To reinforce its commitment to these fundamentals, the PSDB candidate reminded of the government of Fernando Henrique during the Real Plan and would not turn the table in the economy if elected.

Fiscal policy.Serra has emphatically criticized the increase in public spending. He defended, during the launch of his candidacy by the PSDB in April, fiscal austerity, which according to him, means doing better with the same resources.

Central Bank autonomy.We need to give assurances that the Central Bank can work in peace, without interfering at all times.But if there are calamitous mistakes, the president needs to make sure his position is felt.

Fixed term for the president of CB. Serra is against the imposition of fixed term for the president of the Central Bank.For this to happen, it would be necessary to rewrite the CB model. It is interesting to note that Senator Arthur Virgilio is the author of the bill, among other things, establishing a fixed term for the president and directors of the Central Bank.

Fiscal Responsibility Law.During discussion at the XIII March of Mayors, in Brasilia, Serra spoke about the Law of Fiscal Responsibility. He criticized the unequal application of the LFR on the one hand, states and municipalities and the other, the Union. According to the pre-candidate, the first two entities can not issue debt securities and the Union has no emission limits. “States and municipalities cannot issue debt, and I am in favor of that.But the federal government does so freely, “he said. And he stressed: “In fact, the Fiscal Responsibility Law is on the states and municipalities.

6. Energy Policy

Belo Monte.Considers the project important, but argues for further discussion with regard to environmental issues and economic issues. In its assessment, if the government wants to do it, it needs to convince society of the benefits this plant provides.For him, the next government must give great importance to the subject.

Diversification.Brazil has options for alternative sources of energy not damaging the environment that are not being exploited. These are the cases of wind and solar energy.

7. Foreign Policy

Sovereignty of countries.A country should not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. But when the issue of human rights appears, Brazil will take positive positions. Maintains a friendly relationship with Venezuela.

Mercosur.We set very ambitious targets, according to the toucan.Therefore, he defends its reformulation in order to strengthen it. Aims to strengthen free trade within the bloc. Serra is against the fact that there are impediments regarding the negotiation of bilateral agreements with other countries outside Mercosur.

8. Social Programs

Bolsa Familia (Family Allowance). Advocates the maintenance of the Bolsa Familia, strengthening linkages with education and health. Strengthening the referral of youth to elementary school for vocational education. Strengthening of the program in order to strengthen the family.

Helpless.One of his focuses will be the people he classifies as helpless, like the disabled, elderly and children. He said the government has a duty to help and be supportive of those people. During a speech in April, while the PSDB launched him as a pre-candidate, Serra said, “You know how many people with a disability there are in Brazil? More than 20 million – the vast majority without the comfort of accessibility to public facilities and rehabilitation treatment.”

Drugs.For Serra, the government needs to invest in clinics and rehabilitation programs for those in need.As young people are the main victims, preventive, educational, law enforcement and assistance must be combined with the expansion of vocational training and job opportunities.

.

9. Reforms

Welfare.Acknowledges that the pension system as a whole, is in deficit. So he says it needs a reform which will eliminate privileges and correct injustices.

Tax Reform.Unnoticed by the press, he made a speech in the congress of the Association of Mining Municipalities, on May 6. At one point, Serra talked about what he thinks about Tax Reform.

The PSDB candidate said that, despite all being in favor of reform, each has his own conviction on this subject, everyone wants something different. Some, more money for municipalities, others want to pay less taxes, more money for the states, along with pressure from various organized sectors, such as exporters, for example.”Nobody thinks the same,” said Serra.

Due to pressure from so many different interests, the text, however well prepared by the Executive, has just turned into a patchwork quilt in Congress. The end result is that the text ends up generating the opposite effect of what they wanted initially.

Another difficulty pointed out by Serra as far as Tax Reform is the long-term pipeline. In his forecast, if it starts in January, it does not end until December. Then they need to regulate the proposal through complex laws. There is also the deadline for implementing the new system because of the need to adopt a transition rule. That is, according to the PSDB candidate, this whole process would take three or four years at least.

In the end, Serra said, “what does it take then?” And he said, “short term mechanisms.” That is, measures that can be made by the Executive, without the need for congressional approval or not requiring a qualified quorum, as the proposed amendment to the Constitution (PEC).

But without a PEC, it is impossible to reduce the number of taxes, create a federal VAT or unify the ICMS legislation.

10. Productive Sector

Investment in infrastructure.The crucial problem for Brazil is investment. The PSDB candidate criticized the low rate of government investment to GDP. This, in his assessment, is what undermines the performance of ports, airports, roads and warehouses. The problem, according to Serra, is not just the lack of money, but lack of planning. For him, Brazil’s GDP could grow much more if the infrastructure was adequate.

Tax cuts.Serra has criticized the government’s decision during the financial crisis, to promote tax cuts. In discussion with mayors in Brasilia, Serra said that the postponement and subsequent return of taxes could have been made. According to him, this avoids a permanent loss for states, municipalities and the Union.

11. Other Topics

Agriculture.During a speech to farmers, the former governor said that agriculture was “the goose that lays golden eggs” of the country’s development and that saved Brazil, balancing the accounts and holding inflation.”If it were not for farming the Real Plan would not have worked.” Also in the speech, the toucan was critical of barriers to foreign agricultural products from Brazil and exchange rate policy of the current federal government. Serra reaffirmed that social movements that promote fights in the field are “political movements” and must be prevented.”This is not to feed this machine with public money,” said Serra.

Security.Creation of the Ministry of Security, focusing the information the government holds in the security area.Its main task would be to prevent smuggling and trafficking of drugs.

Health. Serra advocates more investment in health and safety.Recently he said that “health is not turned back, but left to be accelerated.We need to accelerate the health program with a program of acceleration of security. ”

Zona Franca de Manaus (Free Zone of Manaus). Advocates the strengthening of the Free Zone. Serra says that you must have an industry, a complementary pole of production. Advocates the provision of incentives to generate more jobs, to produce, because the more pieces and parts are produced in Manaus, the more jobs will be generated. We must build a new port for the region. Argues that the entire transportation system in the Amazon needs to be streamlined, especially the waterway. For him, the Free Zone has to be strengthened. It is a reality that creates jobs, which is very important, and helps preserve the forest.

Royalties from the pre-salt. For the former governor, the stock of pre-salt yet to come should be linked with investments to benefit the whole country. At the same time, it is favorable that the majority of resources continue with the producing states.

Royalties on mining. Jose Serra argues that companies pay more to the states for mineral exploration. In an interview with CBN (May 10), he said Minas Gerais, for example, should receive more than it receives today.

Environment. Serra said he intends to treat more seriously the preservation of the environment and sustainable development.For him, it is possible to make the country grow and protect the environment, preserve the forests, air quality and contain carbon dioxide emissions.It is an urgent duty to give all Brazilians sanitation, which is also the environment. Piped water of good quality, and treated sewage are not luxuries. The green economy is a promising possibility for Brazil in the evaluation of the PSDB candidate.

Human rights. To Sierra, these are not negotiable.He said during an event in the PSDB April 10: “Democracies do not have people imprisoned or sentenced to hang for thinking differently from whoever is in government. Democracies do not have workers dying of hunger strike when they disagree with the regime.”

Keywords:  Alan Garcia Alvaro Uribe Argentina argentinean government argentinean politics Bolivia bolivian crisis bolivian economy bolivian government bolivian politics Brazil Brazilian economy brazilian elections Brazilian Government Brazilian politics Chilean elections Chilean politics civil war in bolivia Colombia colombian government colombian politics Cristina Kirchner dilma rousseff Ecuador Evo Morales financial crisis Henrique Meirelles Hugo Chavez Latin America Latin American politics Lula Mercosur natural gas oil in venezuela Peru Peruvian economy peruvian government Peruvian politics political analysis Rafael Correa Thiago de Aragão Venezuela Venezuelan economy venezuelan government Venezuelan politics

Brazil: The Ideas of Dilma Rousseff

Public Administration

State. For Dilma, the state has to act where there is market failure. Especially where there are large concentrations of power or networking. For example, in the case of electricity, we must ensure that the magawatts reach the consumer’s home, regardless of who controls the transmission networks. The same applies to the highways.

Public Officials.  The former minister defends the hiring of new workers in essential activities of the state. “More engineers, more technicians, more teachers. Less general services assistant,” said the former cabinet minister in an interview with CBN radio (17/05).

Public official’s remuneration. Advocates the creation of differentiated pay for public officials as an incentive. The civil servant needs to be valued so that there are quality services.

Regulatory agencies. For Dilma, the criteria for filling positions in regulatory agencies must be technical. But when a party indicates members to agencies, this does not necessarily mean that the person is unable or does not meet technical requirements. Agencies need to act to prevent the formation of cartels, monopolies and market imperfections.

Privatization. At an event in New York, the PT’s candidate for president, Dilma Rousseff said that we should not privatize Petrobras, Eletrobras and all companies in the electricity sector and public banks. She said she supports the granting of new dams and highways to the private sector where it is cheaper to make by way of grants rather than by public works.

3. Agriculture

Family farming. At the 2nd National Meeting of Family Farming Housing in Santa Catarina, pre-PT candidate for president, Rousseff, criticized the governments that did not give importance to family farms and pledged to continue and advance in the actions of the Lula government in this area.

Rural housing. Dilma promised to make some changes to the program My House, My Life, among them the inclusion of retirement homes and the cutting of red tape. But she also promised to create within the national housing management of the Caixa Economica Federal, a specific sector devoted to rural areas.

4. Education

Education. For Dilma Rousseff quality education means more than just building, laboratories and installing broadband in schools. It is about well-paid and trained teachers. The former minister has promised the creation of six thousand daycare centers. To be a developed country, according to her, you must have quality education and daycare.

Teachers. Advocates appreciation of teachers through “decent wages” and continued education. It is favorable that school teachers have university degrees.

5. Economic Stimulus

Role of the State. During a seminar on infrastructure in Rio de Janeiro (May 10) organized by Valor Economico and the Financial Times, Dilma said: “In certain areas it is absolutely imperative that the state has active planning, regulation. I believe that the Brazilian state needs to be agile. Today it is not agile. The state is inductive, but the private sector is important. Without it, you cant build an avenue or a dam.”

Growth. Dilma, during an event in Sao Paulo (31/05) said that Brazil can grow around 5.5% per annum on average until 2014. Among the sectors which would boost this growth are oil and gas, electricity, logistics, housing construction and agribusiness.

Ministry of Micro and Small Businesses. The PT’s candidate defended during the “Industry Meeting with the Presidential Hopefuls” held by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), the creation of a ministry oriented towards micro, small and medium sized businesses. Dilma reported that this hypothesis has been raised by the current government, but that with the arrival of the international financial crisis, the project was suspended. According to Dilma the micro and small businesses need local production support.

Industrial park. In the same CNI event, Dilma said everything that can be produced in Brazil, should be produced here. For her, we have a diversified industrial sector.

Payroll tax reduction. The pre-candidate was favorable to a topic that is being requested by employers for some time, which is the relief of the payroll. “This is fundamental. At one point, the Treasury will have to bear the difference, because it does not break the system, but capital goods and investment, export, and payroll are essential,” she said. Moreover, she said that would also discuss the Brazil cost. “We have an encumbrance in the energy sector and energy is critical throughout the production chain,” she said at an event organized by CNI (25/05).

Tax credits. During a debate sponsored by CNI, Dilma said that tax reform is now the major step towards competitiveness with other items such as tax relief and encouraging investment, increasing exports and employment. “This means so much that we complete exoneration of capital goods allowing immediate use of PIS, Confins IPI … today they leak and are not considered.” She also defended the automatic return of the tax credits based on the estimated payment in the last 12 months by entrepreneurs. “The return of 100% of these loans is essential and is done on all exporting countries,” she compared.

6. Economic policy

Economic fundamentals. On several occasions, Dilma has reinforced her commitment to the primary surplus, a regime of inflation targeting and floating exchange rate.

Inflation target. Dilma said at an event in New York, that she has as a goal the reduction of the inflation target from 2011 to 2014. But said this must be done gradually and carefully, because we live in turbulent world.

Central Bank autonomy. The pre-presidential candidate for the PT Dilma Rousseff said (10/05), in an interview after attending the seminar Brazil Infrastructure Summit in Rio de Janeiro, that she considers “extremely important” the autonomy of the Central Bank. Dilma made the statement while answering questions from journalists about the interview given by the pre-PSDB presidential candidate Jose Serra to CBN radio in which he stated that “the CB is not holy.” Asked if she intends to maintain the autonomy of CB, the PT’s candidate said: “I think the important operational autonomy to the Central Bank had in the government of President Lula. We always had a very tranquil relationship with the CB.”

Sovereign Fund. According Rousseff, the growth of the Brazilian economy opens the doors so there is extra in the national sovereign wealth fund, which currently accumulates close to R$ 17 billion, according to the pre-candidate. “Clearly, economic growth enables us to increase the sovereign fund, why not?” she asked during the “Industry Meeting with Presidential Hopefuls” held at the headquarters of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), in Brasília.

7. Fiscal policy

Spending cuts. During a debate sponsored by CNI (25/05), Dilma says you have to cut government spending, but in a rational way. “It is not cutting spending costs, but spending costs that are not rational for the country and its investment,” she said. The pre-candidate cited the example of the gap in wages between executive officials and those who oversee the Executive.

Real interest. According to Dilma, it is possible to achieve in the coming years a real interest rate “just below 5%” and for that we need to move forward on the issue of taxation, reducing the government debt.

8. Industrial policy

Funding of public banks. Dilma said the big challenge for the next government will be to find “different sources of funding” for the economy. “The crisis showed that it was very important that Brazil has owned banks for financing. But we can only rely on the public benches. We achieved, I believe, the limit of public banks, “said the minister in an event in the United States.

Pension funds. One source of funding for infrastructure, according to the PT candidate, are the pension funds. “Without that, we will not redeem the problem of private and public savings,” said the former minister at an event organized by CNI (25/05). For the pre-candidate, you must have technical features that enable the management, induction and correct regulation of the increase in public savings without harming the private sector.

Ports. Rousseff argued during debate in the National Industry Confederation, the creation of a centralized port management to expedite the clearance at the ports that today is extremely fragmented and decentralized.

9. Social policy

Social inclusion. Dilma, during a conference on infrastructure in Rio de Janeiro (May 10), said her government has committed to a policy that continues the process of development with social inclusion.

Health. Rousseff advocates the allocation of more resources for health. In an interview with CBN radio (17/05), the former minister criticized the CPMF who, she says, took R$ 40 billion a year from the health sector. In her opinion, there are two ways to ensure more resources for health: 1. Reassign money, and 2. Create a new tax. Defends the provision of Amendment 29, which seeks more resources for health.

Medicine. Dilma argued (26/05) for the reduction of taxes on medicines. For the PT, in addition to forwarding the tax reform proposal, the government must make decisions “immediate” to lessen the tax burden. “In medicine, it is absurd to tax. The next action is immediate remedy because it is a matter of survival of the population.”

CPMF. According to the PT candidate, the end of the CPMF has not brought lower prices to consumers, as was stated by entrepreneurs at the time of the extinction. Furthermore, with the end of CPMF, we lost the ability to monitor suspicious financial transactions.

Extreme poverty. In an interview with IstoÉ (8 / 05), Dilma said her great mission is to eradicate poverty and that it is possible to do so in coming years. In the interview, she cites IPEA study showing that by 2016 it is possible to eradicate extreme poverty.

10. Reforms

Pension reform. She is against a broad pension reform. In countries that have, according to the minister, there was one problem: a race to retirement. Maintains systematic adjustments.

Tax Reform. The former minister is in favor of a tax reform that will end tax cascading. It would be a way to increase our productivity and therefore our competitiveness. She says that to reform, however, is impossible without compensation. So, to counteract the negative effect of loss of revenue, she plans to propose the creation of a compensation fund for states and municipalities.

Workday. The minister believes the government should not go on defending the reduction of working hours from 44 to 40 hours weekly. In her view, this is an understanding that needs to be built between the trade union movement and business associations.

11. Other topics

Reelection. Dilma is in favor of reelection. However, when asked if she could give up on reelection in 2014 if elected in October, she said: “He [Lula] already told me not to answer that question.”

Energy. Thinks that Brazil needs to invest in plants of Belo Monte, in the plants of San Antonio and in the mills of the Tapajos. At the same time, investing in biofuels, wind, biomass and small hydroelectric dams.

Settlement of accounts with municipalities. During the March XIII of Mayors to Brasilia, Dilma advocated the settling of accounts with the Municipalities of the INSS. According to the National Confederation of Municipalities, the municipalities should pay to Social Security R$ 22 billion. The account is being charged by federal agency withholding portions of the Municipal Participation Fund. Moreover, the INSS owes these local executives about R$ 26 billion.

Oil royalties. Argues that the producing states receive most of the royalties as bill sponsored by President Lula to Congress.

UPA. The former minister said she intended to create, if elected, more Emergency Care Units (UPA). UPAs structures are intermediate in complexity between the Basic Health Units and the doors of emergency hospital, where together they make up with an organized network of Attention to Emergencies. Also defends the Polyclinics for specialized treatment.

Security. On public safety, she speaks of a combination of “authority” and inserting in social programs of marginalized populations in regions dominated by organized crime. “Our issue is to defeat crime and we need to strengthen the National Security Force, which we created,” said the candidate of the PT in Bahia (16/05). Dilma advocated expanding the intelligence activities of the police and social programs in places where the police authority has taken control of the territory of organized crime, as occurs today with Peacemaker police units (upps) in Rio de Janeiro.

MST. During an interview on Agrishow (Ribeirao Preto, April 29), Dilma said it is very important to maintain dialogue with social movements. However, she said she did not agree with any activity of any social movement that results in lawlessness. Asked about the estimate of the National Confederation of Agriculture of loss of R $ 9 billion to the agribusiness sector caused by the “Red April,” the MST, Dilma was firm: “I’m not condoning any illegal activity. Lawlessness cannot be rewarded,” she said. Also argued against illegal land invasions.

Flooding. If elected, Dilma promises to invest R$ 10 billion in drainages. “There was no investment during the Lula government because it could not. The federal government had no obligation to invest in drainage. So it did not, but now it seems important to stop this where rain floods homes and people lose everything, “said pre-candidate in an interview with Radio Record (26/05).

Keywords:  Alan Garcia Alvaro Uribe Argentina argentinean government argentinean politics Bolivia bolivian crisis bolivian economy bolivian government bolivian politics Brazil Brazilian economy brazilian elections Brazilian Government Brazilian politics Chilean elections Chilean politics civil war in bolivia Colombia colombian government colombian politics Cristina Kirchner dilma rousseff Ecuador Evo Morales financial crisis Henrique Meirelles Hugo Chavez Latin America Latin American politics Lula Mercosur natural gas oil in venezuela Peru Peruvian economy peruvian government Peruvian politics political analysis Rafael Correa Thiago de Aragão Venezuela Venezuelan economy venezuelan government Venezuelan politics

Brazil: The PT is unable to transform Lula’s super popularity into votes

PT party growth in the number of city halls achieved was undeniable: 157 more than in the 2004 elections. However, several considerations must be taken into account with regards to this performance. Firstly, whatever party is in power tends to achieve a larger number of city halls. This happened with the PMDB during the 80s and the PSDB during the 90s.

 

Secondly, the PT party’s performance was below their own expectations, being that they expected to elect approximately 700 mayors. Most importantly, a fact that must be taken into account is that Lula’s record popularity was not converted into votes. This might be a sign that the party is reaching its electoral limit.

 

In 2004, when President Lula and his administration had a much more modest assessment than the current one, the PT party achieved 16.15 million votes for mayor; now this number is 16.10 million. This number, combined with the difficulty that Lula had to transfer votes to Marta Suplicy (São Paulo), Luiz Marinho (São Bernardo do Campo) and Fátima Bezerra (Natal) should serve as a warning for the party and for the President of the Republic.

Keywords:  Alan Garcia Alvaro Uribe Argentina argentinean government argentinean politics Bolivia bolivian crisis bolivian economy bolivian government bolivian politics Brazil Brazilian economy brazilian elections Brazilian Government Brazilian politics Chilean elections Chilean politics civil war in bolivia Colombia colombian government colombian politics Cristina Kirchner dilma rousseff Ecuador Evo Morales financial crisis Henrique Meirelles Hugo Chavez Latin America Latin American politics Lula Mercosur natural gas oil in venezuela Peru Peruvian economy peruvian government Peruvian politics political analysis Rafael Correa Thiago de Aragão Venezuela Venezuelan economy venezuelan government Venezuelan politics

Brazil: Serra strengthens himself for 2010

José Serra was the big winner in the municipal elections, as architect of Mayor Gilberto Kassab’s (DEM) candidature, which has now gone to the runoffs against Marta Suplicy (PT).  In party terms, the PMDB and the PT were the big winners. Without counting the results of the runoffs, the PMDB has achieved nine City Halls in cities with over 200,000 voters.

 

The PT was victorious in 12 (in 2004 it achieved only four). Amongst the remaining parties that won in large cities, the only one to maintain the same number of city halls was the Democrats (4). The PSDB and PDT also grew (from six to nine and from three to four, respectively).

 

The PMDB and the PT also grew in the general picture: from 1,054 to 1,200 and from 410 to 546 municipalities, respectively. From this point of view, the PP also stands out, with 548 victories. Even though electing a lesser number of Mayors (784 against 870 in 2004), the PSDB is the second-largest party in number of City Halls achieved. The PT appears in fourth place, with 546, ahead of DEM (496).

Keywords:  Alan Garcia Alvaro Uribe Argentina argentinean government argentinean politics Bolivia bolivian crisis bolivian economy bolivian government bolivian politics Brazil Brazilian economy brazilian elections Brazilian Government Brazilian politics Chilean elections Chilean politics civil war in bolivia Colombia colombian government colombian politics Cristina Kirchner dilma rousseff Ecuador Evo Morales financial crisis Henrique Meirelles Hugo Chavez Latin America Latin American politics Lula Mercosur natural gas oil in venezuela Peru Peruvian economy peruvian government Peruvian politics political analysis Rafael Correa Thiago de Aragão Venezuela Venezuelan economy venezuelan government Venezuelan politics
Copyright 2008 © Latin American Politics.    ¦ Home ¦ Blog ¦ About Me ¦ Services ¦ Articles ¦ Lectures ¦ Podcasts ¦ Links ¦ Contact ¦ Subscribe to RSS feeds