Divided and with little mobilization power, the strike called by opposition in Tarija did not create much of a stir. A total suspension of activity was expected in the department that holds the largest natural gas reserves in Bolivia.

 

However, the decision by Evo Morales’ government to take civic leaders, involved in attempts against the gas line in September’s conflicts, into preventive custody has the potential to reorganize and reunite regional opposition.

 

The opinion of local political analysts is that the use of force indicates a lack of authority. Through this, the more radical department representatives, who have rejected agreements signed with the government, have an opportunity to gain new supporters.

 

The Executive power has made yet another mistake. Each time that force is put in use, it creates signs of debility. In addition to mobilizing opposition, it creates space for the emergence of new political players.

 

As a consequence, the opinion is that in 2009 the government will not have a simple outlook ahead, as it will be facing a unified opposition. In addition, President Evo Marales’ adversaries know that a joint effort in the constitutional referendum in January will be easier than in the general elections in December, when all of the players will choose to be candidates, causing difficulty in the construction of collective objectives.

 

For all these reasons, the referendum campaign tends to be very intense. Even with the power of the machine and the support of social movement on behalf of the government, the scenario is indefinite. Research shows that around 20% of voters are undecided. Therefore, the current trend is that the victory of “Yes” or “No” to the new Constitution project will be by a marginal difference. 

Bolivia lives a scenario of tension with the U.S.. The President Evo Morales last month expelled the American ambassador in La Paz, Philip Goldberg, and the end of last week suspended the operations of the U.S. Department of Drugs (DEA). In both cases, alleged political interference in favor of their opponents. 

Barack Obama will have a big challenge in Bolivia. Even promissing to seek dialogue with the region, Morales will use nationalist sentiment as a way to promote social movements that support him politically. It is still uncertain as is the relationship between the two nations.

His influence on social movements and the power of his government give Evo Morales a competitive edge over the opposition in the run-up to the referendum. Unlike a few months ago, the Bolivian Chief of State has never been so close to “re-founding” his nation.

 

Domestically, the opposition is expected to become more isolated. The Podemos, the main opposition party, may have led the agreement, but some regional leaders are angry. Thus, it is still unknown how opposition departments will react. There could be a truce until the vote, but after that there’s no way of projecting what can occur.

 

When trying to prevent an opposition split-up, the Mayor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, said that this is the moment for a broad front to unite and challenge the government. But the Mayor of Beni, Ernesto Suárez, believes that the subject of autonomy was treated in the agreement in a way that betrayed the regions.

After many deadlocks, government and opposition have reached an agreement on the new Constitution. A referendum has been scheduled for 25 January 2009. If the new Magna Carta is approved, general elections will be advanced to December next year. Key to this difficult negotiation was President Evo Morales’s commitment not to run for yet another term if he is re-elected in 2009. With the agreement, Morales will leave office after finishing a new five-year term.

 

From now on, Evo Morales will be closer to the so-called “Bolivian re-foundation”, his main campaign promise. If the new constitution is approved, the economy will see greater State intervention, and also more rights to Indigenous peoples. Also foreseen are concessions for regions governed by the opposition (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Chuquiasca).

 

These are the main changes in the new Constitution:

Re-election: The new Magna Carta provides for the possibility of immediate re-election just once.

Autonomy: Three government tiers will be instituted – departmental, municipal and indigenous. Army, police, central bank and foreign policy continue in the hands of the central government. Other responsibilities will be devolved gradually.

Rangelands: Big land owners will have to prove the “economic and social” utility of their land. Before that, all rangelands areas would have been nationalized. The January vote will set out a 5,000 or 10,000 hectare limit for unproductive land. 

The executive branch of Bolivia thinks oil companies are not necessary in the country if they do not want to abide by their investment commitments. The statement was made by the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy, Saúl Ávalos, in an interview given to broadcasting company Erbol. He recalled that now in Bolivia all commitments are to be fulfilled.

 

Ávalos said that if the companies refuse to implement their investments – US$ 900 millions for this year alone – the State will intervene to verify whether investments in the oil industry are in keeping with its projects.

 

The threat issued by the Ministry lands in an environment of fuel shortage affecting some regions in the country, a situation that has been caused by declining investments in the oil industry.

 

 On the other hand, oil companies justify lesser financial investments due to the country’s political instability in recent years, tax reforms and the nationalization carried out in mid 2006.

After several standoffs between government and opposition over the new constitution referendum, Bolivian political parties decided to form a committee to discuss and attempt to weave a consensus. The committee was announced by Bolivia’s vice-president, Álvaro García Linera. As a result, the congressional session scheduled for last Friday in which the referendum call would be voted was adjourned.

 

Both the chairman of the senate, Óscar Ortiz, and of the house of representatives, Edmundo Novillo, attended the meeting at which this consensus was formed. Both sides are to work relentlessly to attempt to break the many standoffs created in recent months.

 

Negotiations will be reviewed at every 48 hours by representatives of both sides in order to avoid recurring issues. According to Mr. Linera, the time has come for the political forces to take an accountable stance and debate their way out of the institutional crisis.

 

The committee will be comprised by the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the Social and Democratic Power (Podemos), the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) and the National Union (UN).

 

The launch of this committee is a key initiative of Evo Morales’ government. However, the Bolivian leader has failed to demonstrate the political ability necessary to bring the crisis to an end.

 

Compared to the government’s stance in past negotiations, this new initiative amounts to retreat. The million dollar question is knowing whether social movements that have backed up Morales will continue to rally in support or if there will remain a pressure for the approval of the new constitution. 

The governors of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Chuquiasca decided to “temporarily” suspend dialogue with the government. They accused Evo Morales’ allies of not committing to the foundations of the negotiation process and of “hunting” citizens and leaders in their departments.

 

The announcement was made by the governor of Tarija, Mario Cossío. He demanded that Morales intervene and said that the future of the negotiations is “in his hands”. The opposition reacted because of the arrest of a citizen in Tarija. He was accused of taking part in attacks against pipelines and refineries.

 

The opposition believes that the arrest made by the Government Ministry represents a violation of constitutional rights. Cossío also mentioned that the government has not halted the blockades to Santa Cruz and has kept a media campaign in favour of the new Constitution.

 

This new impasse is not really new. As the conflict between government and opposition has very deep historical roots, the institutional crisis tends to continue. Up until now, because of the radical attitude by social movements supporting the Bolivian president, the Executive is unable to conduct the negotiations.

 

In addition, the opposition is accumulating more and more power, as it is concentrated in the richest departments. Also, the Bolivian Confederation of Private Entrepreneurs (CEPB), the nation’s biggest entrepreneurial organization, has spoken in public against the new Magna Carta. 

The US House of Representatives approved the extension of the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) to Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, despite demands by President George W. Bush that benefits to Bolivians be suspended.

 

The ATPDEA allows tax-free Bolivian exports into the US market. It is part of American incentives aimed at Andean nations cooperating in the war on drug trafficking.

 

Bush’s request to exclude any benefits to Bolivia came as a response to the expulsion of the US ambassador to La Paz, Philip Goldberg, at the summit of the institutional crisis, three weeks ago.

 

According to the local press, the benefits will be suspended regardless of the House approval. Sources from the US Embassy in La Paz said that the situation will not change unless the US president issues a resolution to the contrary. Faced with this imminent loss of economic benefits, the government headed by Evo Morales will probably intensify dialogue with Venezuela, Mexico and Brazil, which are all potential markets in the region. 

The dialogue between Bolivian President, Evo Morales and the governors of the Departments of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando and Chuquisaca advanced in a positive way. Nevertheless, the two sides did not discuss the most controversial themes. A member of Morales’s cabinet gave the information’s.

 

After more than six hours of negotiations, Morales left the meeting room to have lunch. He left all other members of the discussion group inside the room. According to information gathered, the dynamics of the meeting allowed both sides to explain their version of the story and to defend their points of view.

 

In the best terms, a true solution won`t be found. I believe the closer to a solution will be a paralysation of the crisis. This means that the conflict will not be solved, since the differences in points of view are very antagonist, but a stronger escalation will be suspended, for a while. 

Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, mobilized troops to intervene in the Bolivian crisis. Sources in which President Lula had access, informed that while Chavez was participating in the Union of South American Nations Coup (UNASUL), discussing a solution for the Bolivian crisis, his troops were getting ready to the eventuality of going to Bolivia.

 

Chavez considers unacceptable any concessions to the opposition of the Morales government. He offered a direct intervention in order to establish order in the provinces of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija. Chavez initiative could cause a reaction at the Bolivian Armed Forces that, through its commandant, General Luis Trigo, announced that any intervention from a foreign country in Bolivia would not be welcome. Considered to be a serious man with good relations to Brazilian authorities, Trigo could be a problem to Chavez’s intervention plans and would be no surprise if he were taken away from his position as Commandant of the Army.

 

Monday, Chavez attacked General Trigo accusing him of disobeying President Morales and compared him to the Venezuelan army official that helped prepare the coup d’état against Chavez in 2002. The offer proposed by Chavez, even in the field of hypothesis, will bring more tension to the Bolivian crisis.

 
Welcome! Latin America is becoming consistently more important for the world. As the region becomes more stable, the world sees Latin America as a potential business area. In order to understand te potential Latin America has to offer, the world must understand the unique dynamics that the local politics function. This blog already exists in Portuguese since 2005 and is widely read. I believe it can be an important instrument to understand this amazing region. Suggestions, criticisms and opinions are welcome. + learn more

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