The victory of Democrat Barack Obama for the presidency of the US has given indications of a change in America’s foreign policies in relation to Latin America. During the eight years of George W. Bush’s administration, and especially after 9/11, the US focus has been on the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq. Due to this, Latin America was largely sidelined.

 

A change is expected with Obama, as historically Democrats view Latin America with more “care” than Republicans. However, the interventionist character of the Democratic government creates obstacles for free trade deals with the region.

 

According to the president-elect, a new chapter will be written on the relationship with the southern hemisphere. In interviews given throughout his campaign, Obama’s assistants spoke of working together across the continent.

 

If on one hand he shows signs of possible dialogue with his Latin American counterparts, on the other, his protectionist character is still apparent. For the Democrats, it is necessary to maintain the market open and dynamic, as long as it does not benefit only the rich and large companies.

 

The differences are clear in relation to George W. Bush. There may be gains in the region in terms of dialogue. However, Obama may give in to the agenda of American trade unions, which are against free trade agreements.

 

Besides the damaging of partnerships with strategic allies (Colombia and Mexico, for example), Latin Americans will have a harder time entering the American market due to the “more restricted” character of the economy, as expected to be conducted by the Democrats.

 

The Democrats’ greater economic protectionism and Barack Obama’s dislike of FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) make the signing of this type of agreement with Uruguay improbable - a possibility raised in 2007 after the signing of a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA).

 

In addition to this, the effects of the international financial crisis on the Uruguayan economy make the local market far less attractive to American companies, who are today more interested in protecting their businesses. 

The relationship between Mexico and the US is expected to undergo changes during the future Barack Obama administration, in much the same way as Colombia. Within the Democratic vision of the market needing to continue open and dynamic - but while still favoring the working class - , NAFTA (the free trade agreement the USA has with Mexico and Canada) is expected to be brought back to the discussion table.

 

Obama’s opinion is that the free trade agreements with North America defend the interests of companies only. Besides, he sees the Merida Initiative (an anti drug trafficking project similar to the Plan Colombia) as the first step in solving the problem of organized crime. 

With a regime in transition since Fidel Castro stepped down, Cuba will also feel the impact of new policies in the White House. In his speeches, president-elect Barack Obama talked of establishing a true policy in support of human freedom. One of his intentions is to send a message to Cubans about civil rights. However, for now, the island’s embargo will remain unchanged.

 

As contrary as it may seem, a policy of increased dialogue with Cuba will only damage Cuban president Raúl Castro. If this is to happen, the Castro regime will begin to lose their anti-American rhetoric as a way of maintaining unity among their allies. In this way, the transition can be accelerated. 

Colombia is one the countries with the highest expectations in relation to the Barack Obama administration in the US, as it has an FTA (Free Trade Agreement) which is still awaiting approval by the US Congress.

 

Even though the success of the policies against the Farc (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) has been recognized, Democrats have criticized violence against trade union members and NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) in Colombia.  That’s why the Democratic majority in Congress has not allowed the agreement to be approved, in spite of numerous requests by President George W. Bush.

 

Obama is in favor of renegotiating the FTA so that it may be approved. Despite all the negativity, there are indications that the Democrats have a critical attitude in relation to free trade, one of the Republicans’ leading standpoints for the region. The center of the Democrats’ argument is that the economy should serve the “interests of the working class and not the rich and those of large companies”.

 

President Álvaro Uribe, is expected to suffer the most, as Bush currently sees Colombia as America’s leading ally in the region. 

 
Welcome! Latin America is becoming consistently more important for the world. As the region becomes more stable, the world sees Latin America as a potential business area. In order to understand te potential Latin America has to offer, the world must understand the unique dynamics that the local politics function. This blog already exists in Portuguese since 2005 and is widely read. I believe it can be an important instrument to understand this amazing region. Suggestions, criticisms and opinions are welcome. + learn more

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