In the midst of a crisis of confidence due to the nationalization of private pension funds and misgivings about the soundness of its economy, Argentina sees the victory of Barack Obama in the U.S. as an opportunity to reconnect the country, especially when you take into account that the new North American president emphasized the need for more dialogue with Latin America. 

However, the characteristic of more protectionist Democrats on the economy creates obstacles to trade relations between the two countries. Moreover, it is important to highlight the difficulty of access to credit that Argentina will have as a consequence of default given to international organizations - in the recent past - and the international financial crisis.

About one year ago, presidential candidate Cristina Kirchner led opinion polls and moved closer to the Casa Rosada. Representing the popular government of Néstor Kirchner, Cristina would be elected president in the following month.

 

However, her honeymoon with public opinion did not last long. Cristina is now an unpopular president leading a government offering no confidence. During the short period she’s been administering Argentina, she has got into fights with the media, VP Julio Cobos and important wings of the Partido Justicialista.

 

The retenciones vote also showed that the Casa Rosada cannot count on a majority within Congress. Despite having a nominal majority, Kirchnerism ended up on the losing side.

 

After one year, the Argentine government has seen quite a change. It has gone from a honeymoon to a period of doubts and uncertainties. Now, all attentions are turned to the consequences of the financial crisis. It will be the ultimate test for her contested economic policies. 

The Argentinean opposition seeks to leverage the government’s loss of control of the country’s agenda to build up strength in next year’s legislative elections. The lead has been taken by Rubén Giustiniani, chair of the Socialist Party (PS). While attending the National Convention of the Radical Civic Union (UCR), the (Peronist) Justicialist Party’s main rival, he proposed creation of so-called “electoral fronts” to fight Kircherism.

 

Giustiani’s proposal was acclaimed by the leader of the Civic Coalition and last election’s runner up, Elisa Carrió. Carrió sympathizes with the idea of rallying oppositionist forces to confront president Cristina Kirchner. However, she said that it will take some time before oppositionists come to unison.

 

Today, Kircherism owns a majority of seats in the Parliament. Cristina’s allies have 153 out of 257 representatives. In the Senate, 44 of a total of 72 seats belong to her partisans. On the other hand, this juncture may change in 2009 elections when the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one third of the 72 senatorial seats are to be renewed.

 

If they emerge victorious in the upcoming legislative poll, oppositionists still have two years to come up with a nominee who will represent the coalition in the 2011 presidential elections. Today’s key names are the mayor of the autonomous municipality of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, the former Minister of Finance Roberto Lavagna, the Civic Coalition leader, Elisa Carrió, and the Argentinean vice-president Julio Cobos, who has parted ways with Cristina Kirchner.

 
Welcome! Latin America is becoming consistently more important for the world. As the region becomes more stable, the world sees Latin America as a potential business area. In order to understand te potential Latin America has to offer, the world must understand the unique dynamics that the local politics function. This blog already exists in Portuguese since 2005 and is widely read. I believe it can be an important instrument to understand this amazing region. Suggestions, criticisms and opinions are welcome. + learn more

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