Colombia: The impact of Obama`s victory
Colombia is one the countries with the highest expectations in relation to the Barack Obama administration in the US, as it has an FTA (Free Trade Agreement) which is still awaiting approval by the US Congress.
Even though the success of the policies against the Farc (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) has been recognized, Democrats have criticized violence against trade union members and NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) in Colombia. That’s why the Democratic majority in Congress has not allowed the agreement to be approved, in spite of numerous requests by President George W. Bush.
Obama is in favor of renegotiating the FTA so that it may be approved. Despite all the negativity, there are indications that the Democrats have a critical attitude in relation to free trade, one of the Republicans’ leading standpoints for the region. The center of the Democrats’ argument is that the economy should serve the “interests of the working class and not the rich and those of large companies”.
President Álvaro Uribe, is expected to suffer the most, as Bush currently sees Colombia as America’s leading ally in the region.
Comment (0)Chile: The impact of Obama`s victory
Chile should be one of the countries harmed by the policies of social protection advocated by the new U.S. president, Barack Obama (to reduce taxes for the poorer and increase for the rich, more secure access to the health system, the unemployment insurance and improve the education of children).
The crisis of the U.S. economy added to the interventionist policies that mark the Democrat governments must bring obstacles to FTA (Free Trade Agreeement) between the two countries since the U.S. economy will be more protected.
Comment (0)Bolivia: The impact of Obama`s victory
Bolivia lives a scenario of tension with the U.S.. The President Evo Morales last month expelled the American ambassador in La Paz, Philip Goldberg, and the end of last week suspended the operations of the U.S. Department of Drugs (DEA). In both cases, alleged political interference in favor of their opponents.
Barack Obama will have a big challenge in Bolivia. Even promissing to seek dialogue with the region, Morales will use nationalist sentiment as a way to promote social movements that support him politically. It is still uncertain as is the relationship between the two nations.
Comment (0)Argentina: The impact of Obama`s victory
In the midst of a crisis of confidence due to the nationalization of private pension funds and misgivings about the soundness of its economy, Argentina sees the victory of Barack Obama in the U.S. as an opportunity to reconnect the country, especially when you take into account that the new North American president emphasized the need for more dialogue with Latin America.
However, the characteristic of more protectionist Democrats on the economy creates obstacles to trade relations between the two countries. Moreover, it is important to highlight the difficulty of access to credit that Argentina will have as a consequence of default given to international organizations - in the recent past - and the international financial crisis.
Comment (0)Bolivia: Agreement splits opposition
His influence on social movements and the power of his government give Evo Morales a competitive edge over the opposition in the run-up to the referendum. Unlike a few months ago, the Bolivian Chief of State has never been so close to “re-founding” his nation.
Domestically, the opposition is expected to become more isolated. The Podemos, the main opposition party, may have led the agreement, but some regional leaders are angry. Thus, it is still unknown how opposition departments will react. There could be a truce until the vote, but after that there’s no way of projecting what can occur.
When trying to prevent an opposition split-up, the Mayor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, said that this is the moment for a broad front to unite and challenge the government. But the Mayor of Beni, Ernesto Suárez, believes that the subject of autonomy was treated in the agreement in a way that betrayed the regions.
Comment (0)Peru: APRA optimistic
The Cabinet of Ministers chaired by Yehude Simon will be concluded by April 2009 after overcoming political issues, said the secretary general of the APRA party, Mauricio Mulder. According to him, the experience gained in this period will be fundamental to face the challenges ahead.
Mulder highlighted that Simon has already begun a negotiation process with all political and social leaders in Peru. According to him, the new government set-up will receive a vote of confidence from Congress. The secretary general also said that the APRA party as a whole will provide support in Congress. Despite Mulder’s optimism, local sources say that some wings of the APRA party are dissatisfied. They believe that the party lost political power in the current government, given a more technical set-up in the upper tier.
However, there will hardly be any short-term change. Alan García’s new government now aims at achieving independence from the political system, which ends up in a paradox. The government must have a more independent attitude, but at the same time needs party backing to support García’s unpopular administration.
Comment (0)Venezuela: Manufacturing vs economic targets for 2009
The president of Conindustria, the Venezuelan Industry Confederation, Eduardo Gómez Sigala, has said that the 15% inflation target set out by the government for 2009 is not compatible with the nation’s reality. In an interview with a local newspaper, he said that inflation will reach 35% by the end of the year. Therefore, it would be very difficult for the projected reduction to occur next year.
Sigala revealed that, based on the institution’s projections, Venezuela will keep relying on imports. He also questioned Finance Minister Ali Rodríguez Araque, who has projected a 6% economic growth for 2009.
He said that the manufacturing industry accumulates only a 3% expansion, whereas in 2007 it reached 7.5%. He also revealed that business people are convinced that the economic situation will get even more complicated and difficult by next year. According to him, growth will not be achieved unless domestic production is increased in all industries.
Respect to private ownership is also seen as fundamental by business people for the nation to recover. “While there is talk of investments, the government is questioning ownership rights”, said Sigala.
Comment (0)Argentina: A two-faced government
About one year ago, presidential candidate Cristina Kirchner led opinion polls and moved closer to the Casa Rosada. Representing the popular government of Néstor Kirchner, Cristina would be elected president in the following month.
However, her honeymoon with public opinion did not last long. Cristina is now an unpopular president leading a government offering no confidence. During the short period she’s been administering Argentina, she has got into fights with the media, VP Julio Cobos and important wings of the Partido Justicialista.
The retenciones vote also showed that the Casa Rosada cannot count on a majority within Congress. Despite having a nominal majority, Kirchnerism ended up on the losing side.
After one year, the Argentine government has seen quite a change. It has gone from a honeymoon to a period of doubts and uncertainties. Now, all attentions are turned to the consequences of the financial crisis. It will be the ultimate test for her contested economic policies.
Comment (0)Bolivia: Government and opposition seal agreement
After many deadlocks, government and opposition have reached an agreement on the new Constitution. A referendum has been scheduled for 25 January 2009. If the new Magna Carta is approved, general elections will be advanced to December next year. Key to this difficult negotiation was President Evo Morales’s commitment not to run for yet another term if he is re-elected in 2009. With the agreement, Morales will leave office after finishing a new five-year term.
From now on, Evo Morales will be closer to the so-called “Bolivian re-foundation”, his main campaign promise. If the new constitution is approved, the economy will see greater State intervention, and also more rights to Indigenous peoples. Also foreseen are concessions for regions governed by the opposition (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Chuquiasca).
These are the main changes in the new Constitution:
Re-election: The new Magna Carta provides for the possibility of immediate re-election just once.
Autonomy: Three government tiers will be instituted – departmental, municipal and indigenous. Army, police, central bank and foreign policy continue in the hands of the central government. Other responsibilities will be devolved gradually.
Rangelands: Big land owners will have to prove the “economic and social” utility of their land. Before that, all rangelands areas would have been nationalized. The January vote will set out a 5,000 or 10,000 hectare limit for unproductive land.
Comment (0)Peru: García forecasts 7% growth in 2009
Despite the adverse international scenario, Peruvian president Alan García has affirmed that the economy will grow by 9% this year, and 7% in 2009. Besides, public investment in roads, water treatment and electricity will increase by 34% in comparison to 2007. According to the local press, García is confident in the nation’s potential. While talking to business people, he said that Peru is well positioned and that investments should be maintained. However, the Peruvian Chief of State asked for prudence in public expenses.
Behind García’s optimistic rhetoric there is worry with the political and economic situation. The political crisis has altered all his cabinet, and now financial market turbulences will serve the opposition well to challenge the efficacy of his government’s orthodox economic policies.
Faced with this scenario, the government will need plenty of political skills to sew up an effective support base. Being in the government will carry an increasingly bigger burden, since there is a tendency for opposition criticism to connect more easily with public opinion wishes. Conversely, being in the opposition becomes more profitable. The main beneficiaries are García’s top opponents: the Workers’ General Centre (CGT) and nationalist leader Ollanta Humala.
Comment (0)
Welcome! Latin America is becoming consistently more important for the world. As the region becomes more stable, the world sees Latin America as a potential business area. In order to understand te potential Latin America has to offer, the world must understand the unique dynamics that the local politics function. This blog already exists in Portuguese since 2005 and is widely read. I believe it can be an important instrument to understand this amazing region. Suggestions, criticisms and opinions are welcome. + learn more
RSS feeds
Podcasts
