It has been a while since Venezuela began their quest to join Mercosur. Argentina and Uruguay were countries that had their respective Parliaments approving Venezuela`s entrance in the bloc. In the other hand, Paraguay and Brazil remained skeptical about that issue. Hugo Chavez was very skillful in supporting paraguayan president Fernando Lugo during his campaign. The large sum invested in Lugo will payoff as soon as the Paraguayan Parliament approved Venezuela`s entrance in Mercosur.

In Brazil, the situation will be a little different. Last year, Chavez offended the Brazilian Parliament when he accused the parliament of being “linked and a puppet of Washington”. This had serious repercussions in Brazil. Since President Lula does not have a solid majority to approve Venezuela`s entrance, Chavez placed himself in a mess that wont be easily solved. 

First of all, Chavez must apologize to the Brazilian Parliament exactly as he did with King Juan Carlos of Spain. Second, he must use the large personnel he has in Brasilia to restablish some institutional ties with key opinion makers in the press and the parliament. Third, the key decision makers must sympathise with the true apology of Chavez as well as convinced with the benefits that the entrance of Venezuela will bring to the bloc. Finally, but most important, Chavez must send signs to Brasilia that his entrance will affect very little the politics of the bloc. The Brazilian press is very concerned that Chavez will politicize the bloc more than needed, and create an unbalance of power. 

The Brazilian foreign policy should aim in tying up with Argentina to guarantee the balance of power in our favour. If Venezuela becomes a full member and aligns with Argentina to confront Brazil in ay major decision, it will represent another defeat for the Brazilian foreign policy.

This weekend’s (July 18-20) events are symbolic of the theme that should prevail in the Brazilian diplomatic agenda over the next few weeks.  Yet again, South America and the negotiations of the Doha Round at the World Trade Organization (WTO) will be in the spotlight.

At the WTO, the approximation of the new decisive deadline for Doha to go ahead has mobilized the main players involved in the negotiation process. The reactions to the texts published in July – which will be the object of discussion as of July 21, in Geneva, when ministers from approximately 30 key countries will unite in an attempt to break the Round’s stalemate – have been, to say the least, controversial. Following moderate optimism at the beginning of the month, the impression that appears to be consolidating itself, is that although possible, the conclusion of the agreement will yet demand plenty of hard work.

With a tight schedule due to the approximation of the US elections, it might not be possible to finalize a text that would serve as a base for the signing of an agreement still in 2008. In this scenario, the conclusion of the round would be further delayed for at least two years. Added to this complicator, are the difficulties related to divergences of expectations regarding sectors and degrees of ambition (and concessions), and new obstacles entailed to internal dynamics. These go from the elections in the United States and the lack of a TPA (authorization for the US Executive Branch to negotiate this type of agreement) all the way to the low cohesion surrounding the propositions laid down by important players, such as Mercosul and the European Union.

Of concrete, the negotiations’ agenda includes a meeting of the G-20 in Geneva on Saturday (July 19), to address the propositions consolidated in July by the agricultural and industrial goods mediators and coordinate a group position for the ministerial meeting next week. But the commencement scheduled for July 21, also in Geneva where the trade organization head office is located, the ministerial phase will determine the future of the round.

In South America, the furthering of the integration with neighboring countries and the strengthening of bilateral relations, with emphasis on political and trade aspects, has been in evidence since Friday (July 18), when President Lula initiated a trip to Bolivia and Colombia.  Following these two countries he will also visit Argentina (at the beginning of August) and Paraguay where Lula will accompany Fernando Lugo’s taking of office as President (August 15).

In Riberalta (Bolivia), Lula participated along with his colleagues Evo Morales (Bolivia) and Hugo Chávez (Venezuela) in an inauguration of a refinery and announced Brazilian participation (with US$ 230 million in financing) in the interconnection between the plain and the Bolivian Amazon. Over the long term, undertakings will include a highway connecting the duty-free zone of Manaus to the Pacific Ocean.