Paraguay: UNASUR will present report on the political situation in the country next week

The Foreign Minister of Peru, Rafael Roncagliolo said that on August, 9^th the first report of UNASUR’s  High Level Group on the political situation in Paraguay will be delivered.

In recent days, representatives of the regional bloc met in Lima, the Peruvian capital, to assess the political crisis in Paraguay established after the deposition of then President Fernando Lugo on June 22^nd. Peru holds the temporary chairmanship of UNASUR.

Paraguay was suspended from the UNASUR until the country’s general elections that will occur in April of 2013. Mercosur also suspended Paraguay for the same period. In the opinion of the authorities of the regional bloc, Lugo’s right to a due process of law was not fully respected, and thus Paraguay violated the democratic clause necessary for a country to be an active member of country’s association. The government was taken over by former vice president, Federico Franco.

The former president’s impeachment was approved by the House of Representatives and the Senate in less than 24 hours. The Paraguayan authorities deny irregularities.

Patriota defends Venezuela’s admission as a full member and the suspension of Paraguay from Mercosur

The Brazilian Foreign Minister, Antonio Patriota, continues to defend Venezuela’s entry in Mercosur and the suspension of Paraguay from the bloc.

Last Wednesday (11), Patriota appeared in the Senate’s Committee for Foreign Relations and responded to criticism from parliamentarians who are contrary to the suspension of Paraguay and against the support given to Venezuela by Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina.

The minister reiterated that both decisions were adopted by common agreement between the three countries during the recent summit meeting, held in the Argentine city of Mendoza. “Paraguay will only be able to rejoin the bloc when it restores full democratic order.”

About Venezuela’s admission as a full member, which was strongly opposed by the Paraguayan Congress before the country was suspended, Patriota insisted that the country has a “strategic” economic and political importance to Mercosur.

“With Venezuela’s admission as a full member, Mercosur will extend itself from Patagonia to the Caribbean” said the minister, who highlighted Venezuela’s potential in the energy sector and its potential of “strengthening the networks of trade and investment” in the region.

According to Patriota, both the suspension of Paraguay and Venezuela’s entry were “difficult, but matured decisions, carefully adopted as to not affect the Paraguayan people” and “as a response to an unacceptable situation.”

The admission of Venezuela as a full member of Mercosur will be formalized at a special meeting to be held on June 31^st, in Rio de Janeiro.

Paraguay: Country files requirement against suspension from Mercosur

The government of Paraguay filed a requirement last week in the Permanent Court of Mercosur to restore its rights in the bloc, which were temporarily suspended, and also presented a complaint opposing the inclusion of Venezuela as a full member.

The government’s top legal officials presented the requirement to the Permanent Court, whose headquarter is located in Asuncion, as announced last week by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Félix Fernández Estigarribia.

The complaint included a protest ​​”against the suspension of Paraguay from the bloc and the declaration by which Venezuela was incorporated as a full member, both decisions contrary to the Treaty of Asuncion, the Protocol of Ouro Preto and the general rules of international law,” according to lawyer, Ernesto Velázquez.

Velazquez, who is part of the government’s legal team, ensured that Paraguay believes that “the aforementioned provisions are null and void” and that “they cannot have legal application and effectiveness.” Moreover, the lawyer points out that the government of Federico Franco, the rightful president since the former head of state, Fernando Lugo was removed by the Senate on June 22, demands the return of Paraguay’s rights within the block.

Velazquez insisted that Mercosur has violated its own resolutions like the “principle of legal equality between states” and “the principle of nonintervention.” He detailed the process, in a document of about 60 pages. All the judges of the Permanent Court, as well as the governments of member states have a deadline of 60 to 90 days to decide on the matter.

Uruguay: Mujica reiterates support to the inclusion of Venezuela in Mercosur

The president of Uruguay, Jose Mujica, ratified the decision of his country to support the inclusion of Venezuela in Mercosur after the bloc approved the suspension of Paraguay from the group.

According to press reports, Mujica said that “while it is true that the proposal was elaborated in the first place by Brazil, we three agree (the presidents of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay), about Venezuela’s entry in the bloc”. The representative of Uruguay said “the political will involved in the case, far exceeds the possible legal impediments regarding the matter”.

Paraguay was suspended from the bloc after Fernando Lugo was deposed. The suspension led to the approval of Venezuela’s entry in the free-trade agreement. Before the events involving Lugo, Venezuela’s entry in Mercosur faced strong opposition by the Paraguayan Senate, while the lawmakers of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay have long supported Venezuelan admission to the group.

Mercosur was formed in 1991 after signing of the so-called Treaty of Asuncion between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Brazil: Presidency denies pressure on Venezuela’s entry in Mercosur

The special advisor for international affairs of the Presidency, Marco Aurelio Garcia, denied that Brazil has pressed Mercosur countries to force Venezuela’s entry as a permanent member on the bloc.

In an interview for radio “El Espectador”, however, the Uruguayan foreign minister, Luis Almagro, said that “nothing is decided” and that “the country has not given the last word” on the whole process. According to Almagro, the intervention of President Rousseff was “decisive” for Venezuela’s entry.

Almagro’s statements surprised the Brazilian Presidential Palace and made Marco Aurelio personally call the Uruguayan President, Jose Mujica, to verify the story.

Marco Aurelio Garcia explained “the decision to include Venezuela on July 31^st was part of a broad understanding that included President Mujica. “I want to make clear that on our part there was no imposition, no pressure. This is not the style of President Dilma or that of the Brazilian foreign policy”.

Garcia said that Venezuela withdrew from economic sanctions it had unilaterally taken against Paraguay to suspend oil supply to its Latin American neighbor. He denied, however, that the Chavez’s retreat was a condition to the entry of Venezuela in the bloc.

Congress approves Fernando Lugo’s impeachment and Paraguay lives amid an environment of political instability

In a swift and coordinated movement, the Paraguayan Congress approved Fernando Lugo’s impeachment with extreme ease and rapidness. The process was approved by the House of Representatives by 76 votes in favor and one against last Thursday (21), and the Senate by 39 in favor, 4 against and 2 abstentions on Friday (22).

Elected in 2008, ending a six-decade hegemony of the Colorado Party, Lugo was overthrown by an “express” impeachment process, which caused suspicion from many neighboring countries, exactly because of the hastiness of the impeachment’s pace.

Known for his historic leadership of social movements as a Catholic bishop, Lugo took over the presidency supported by a broad alliance. Despite been elected in 2008 with 41% of the votes, he ruled facing strong opposition in the House of Representatives and the Senate, counting only with the support of social movements, mainly from groups that advocated agrarian reform in the country. And even these social movements (landless groups and teachers’ associations) were unsatisfied and pressured the former president to speed-up poverty relief actions.

It is important to notice that the support of the vice-president at the time, Federico Franco, from the PLRA (Authentic Radical Liberal Party), was decisive in the decision to impeach the former president. Lugo and Franco would have allegedly decided to breakup their alliance recently.

The crisis that led to the downfall of Fernando Lugo reached its peak after the deaths of 11 farmers and 7 police officers in a confrontation last week in a farm called Curuguaty, located in the Department (State) of Canindeyú, near the border with Paraná, Brazil. The opposition blamed Lugo for the episode.

According to some opposition leaders, the armed group EPP (Paraguayan People’s Army) was involved in the actions against the police and received “disguised” support from Lugo. However, there is no evidence of the participation of the EPP in the conflict. The irregular occupation of the lands was led by the Liga Nacional de Carperos (literally meaning National Camped League).

The land dispute was intensified in recent months because many landless movement leaders were demanding the review of property titles owned by farmers – in many cases brasiguaios (Brazilian immigrants)- on grounds that the properties were distributed illegally during the military regime led by Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989).

Because the Paraguayan Constitution allows the president to be prosecuted for “poor performance of his function, crimes committed in the exercise of his duties or for common crimes,” the opposition, led by the Colorado Party, decided to act and overthrew Lugo.

At the time of his impeachment, Fernando Lugo’s popularity was down. According to researcher Enrique Taka Chase, since 2008, his approval fell from 58% to 38%.

With Lugo’s impeachment, the vice-president, Federico Franco, from the PLRA took over. Apparently, the new president will face a wave of internal protests, and international pressures. The Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), for example announced that it will cancel the fuel transfers made ​​to Petropar, the Paraguayan state oil company.

If on one hand, Fernando Lugo’s impeachment will improve the relation between the country’s executive branch with the political system, since Federico Franco and his party, the PLRA will have a better dialogue with Congress, on the other hand, the situation of the new government with the international community will be, at least for now, tense.

Besides the internal protests of social movements linked to Lugo, the new government could face political isolation in South America because many countries in the region saw the episode as a “coup sponsored by the Colorado Party.”

In the region, one of the countries with the greatest interest in resolving the current political crisis in Paraguay is Brazil. Dilma Rousseff has special interest in Paraguay for the following reasons, among others:

1) The two countries hold the co-administration of Itaipu (Binational hydroelectric, largest power plant in the world). Political instability could pose a risk (with boycotts or threats) in the electricity supply to the entire southern and southeastern Brazil;

2) There are about 400,000 Brazilians or Brazilian descendants in the country, many of them farmers, who are being evicted by the courts on the grounds of irregularities with their property’s titles. In the current environment of dispute for agrarian reform, these lands could become the target government sponsored invasions.

3) Brazil is an important partner of Paraguay in Mercosur, exporting more than US$ 2.97 billion to the neighboring country in 2011, especially in products such as fertilizers and diesel oil, and imported US$ 716 million – corn and wheat are the main items.

4) The Friendship Bridge, which connects Foz do Iguaçu to Ciudad del Este, is an important transit route for people and products.

5) Paraguay is considered a strategic ally on issues such as piracy, drugs and weapons trafficking.

NEW MINISTERIAL TEAM

The new president of Paraguay, Federico Franco, maintained only two ministers from the Fernando Lugo administration: Enzo Cardozo (Agriculture) and Francisco Rivas (Industry).

The other ministers of the new Paraguayan government are: José Fernández (Foreign Affairs), Carmelo Caballero (Interior), Horacio Galeano Perrone (Education and Culture), Enrique Salyn Buzarquis (Public Works and Construction) and Mary Liz Garcia (National Defense), the first woman to occupy this position in the country. President Fernández also nominated Antonio Arbo (Health Care) and Maria Segovia (Justice and Labor).

UNASUR makes emergency meeting on the political situation in Paraguay

The presidents of the countries that form the UNASUR made an emergency meeting on the Thursday afternoon (21) during Rio +20 to discuss the political situation in Paraguay, after President Fernando Lugo dismissed rumors regarding his resignation after the opening, in Congress, of an impeachment process against him.

The announcement of the meeting was made by the President of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, who also chairs the diplomatic group.

Political pressure on Lugo grew up in the last few hours with the approval by the House of Representatives of an impeachment process on the grounds of liability in the confrontation between police and farmers that left 17 dead on Friday.

Lugo would have called the block presidents and confirmed he has no intention of resigning.

The UNASUR is a political organization formed by Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Brazil: House of Representatives approves agreement for Rio +20

The House of Representatives approved on Thursday (26) the draft of a legislative decree authorizing the ratification of the agreement signed between Brazil and the United Nations (UN) to implement the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) , Rio 20, in Rio de Janeiro, during June 13^th to the 22^nd . The event takes place 20 years after Eco-92 or the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), which also dealt with sustainable development.
 
The document signed between Brazil and the United Nations sets out the facilities where the conference will take place, as well as specifying the equipment, medical facilities, accommodation, transport, finance and liability issues, privileges, immunities and the safety of participants, among other points.
 
The Rio 20 will discuss, as a major theme, the green economy in the context of sustainability and poverty eradication, and the institutional framework for sustainable development.
 
Representatives of member states or in some cases non members may participate in the event, as well as members of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), World Bank (IBRD), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO), and accredited entities and non-governmental organizations.
 
According to the rapporteur of the agreement from the Foreign Relations Committee of the House of Representatives, congressman Bohn Gass (PT-RS), Rio 20 will be the opportunity to make an assessment of how everyone is dealing the strategies set during the first conference in 1992, and how they are being complied along with the international agreements made to enforce the commitments.

Analysis: 2010 in Latin America

The year of 2010 will be a very agitated one in Latin America. In Uruguay, the ex Tupamaro guerrilla, José Mujica, will take office as the new president. He will be responsible maintaining the economical and social achievements inaugurated by the Frente Amplio (Broad Front), through current president Tabaré Vásquez, in 2005.

On the other hand, like every change of government, adjustments are expected. There is a silent debate on whether or not to maintain Uruguay’s participation in MERCOSUR. There are important ties amongst Mujica’s allies who defend a Uruguayan posture which is more similar to the Chilean posture: to participate, but to have the power to make commercial partnerships in their interest. With the arrival of Venezuela, there is a feeling that Uruguayan power, which was already minor, will decrease even further. Moreover, the probable politicization of MERCOSUR does not favor Uruguay.

I believe that 2010 will be one more balanced year in Uruguay. One of the greatest challenges Mujica will face will be to keep the young population inside the country, since the average age of Uruguayans is increasing. The tendency for young Uruguayans is to study in Argentina or in other countries, and this jeopardizes the country’s labor force. Mujica will have to invest so that young people in Uruguay feel they might have similar job opportunities in their own country.

In Chile, after 20 years in power, Concertación (Concertation) – the center-left coalition that has governed the country since 1990 – is at risk of being defeated by the center-right forces, grouped around Sebastian Piñera, of Alianza por Chile (Alliance for Chile). He will run in the 2^nd round against ex-president Eduardo Frei, representative of Concertación, on January 17. Like Uruguay, Chile is on “auto-pilot”. Economical issues are not points of divergence, but rather convergence. With an intelligent campaign, Piñera avoided attacks against Eduardo Frei and preferred to characterize Concertación as the “continuation of the old Chilean policy.” Piñera branded himself as the candidate who will maintain the achievements of Concertación, and make improvements. To reach a larger public, Piñera gave up his conservative posture and now defends homosexual marriage and the distribution of the morning-after pill. This way, even with a popularity rate above 80%, Michelle Bachelet has not been able to pass this popularity on to Eduardo Frei.

In Brazil and Colombia, the political agenda will revolve around the elections. In Brazil, supported by the popularity of president Lula, PT will try to reach the third consecutive mandate with minister Dilma Rousseff. On the opposition, governor of São Paulo, José Serra (PSDB), will try to drive the tucanos (toucans, as PSDB members are known) to power once again. If nothing new happens, the Brazilian election is bound to be polarized between PT and PSDB, a fact that has repeated since 1994. The scoreboard is tied 2×2. Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) won in 1994 and 1998. PT had its payback in 2002 and 2006, by electing and re-electing Lula. The candidates’ decision for vice-president will be a big issue. On Dilma’s side, Michel Temer is losing ground daily while Henrique Meirelles is gaining strength. On Serra’s side, Senator Agripino Maia is a name well suited to the position, that’s why he is among those fighting hard to force Governor José Arruda from his party, the Democrats.

In Colombia, the pre-election setting is undefined. President Álvaro Uribe, even though he hasn’t announced it yet, intends to run for a third consecutive mandate. However, he needs the Supreme Court’s approval for a popular referendum. While this issue is not solved, the election chessboard will be incomplete. If Uribe enters as a candidate, he will be the favorite and should be reelected easily. If the president is prevented from running for the second consecutive reelection, “plan B” is ex-minister of Defense, Juan Manuel Santos. Still, Uribe would be able to elect Juan Manuel Santos. His impressive popularity and the population’s trust in his government, would lead a large part of the population to vote on a candidate chosen by Uribe. However, the real tendency is for Uribe to be the candidate.

In Argentina and Mexico, the focus will be on economic issues. In Argentina, it is estimated that inflation will close 2009 at a rate of 35%. To make things worse, “Kirchnerism” is losing political power.

In 2007, the year in which the president of Argentina, Cristina Kirchner, was elected, she had a popularity rate of 55%, and the support of 20 out of 24 governors. She could also count on the majority of the National Congress. In the Chamber of Deputies, 161 of 257 deputies were “Kirchneristas”. In the senate, 47 of 72 senators were part of its base.

Around two years later, the political capital of the Head of State has been seriously affected. In the Chamber of Deputies, “Kirchnerism” has 104 of 257 deputies in its base. In the Senate, 36 of 72 senators support the government. To make things worse, currently, only 10 of 24 governors support Cristina Kirchner.

With so many problems ahead, Casa Rosada can only hope for an economic recovery and that ex-president Néstor Kirchner returns to the command of the Partido Justicialista – PJ (Justicialist Party). Something that is very unlikely to happen.

In Mexico, the expectation for 2010 is that it will be better than 2009. Because of the ties of the country with the American economy, the Mexican Gross Internal Product (GDP) was heavily affected. Apart from crumbling the popularity of Felipe Calderón, the economical juncture catapulted the legendary Partido da Revolução Institucional – PRI (Institutional Revolution Party). With around three more years ahead, Calderón is betting on the recovery of economic activity to help neutralize his two main adversaries: PRI and PRD’s national leader Manuel López Obrador.

In the Bolivarian Block (Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia) we can expect a growth in the Anti-American speech. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavés will test his popularity and the popularity of the Partido Socialista Unido da Venezuela – PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela) in the legislative elections. Different from four years ago, the opposition will not boycott the elections, a fact that should make the elections more competitive. However, the Venezuelan opposition suffers from something very similar to the Bolivian opposition: There is no articulation, there are many internal conflicts and disputes wearing down its strongest names. Thus, in case there is no restructuring in what the opposition is really aiming for, Chavés will see their implosion and will have a relatively calm campaign.  On the economic field, the government is placing its bets on the increased value of a barrel of oil in the international market. If this does not happen, the difficulties will be tremendous, because more than 45% of 2010’s budget has been set aside for social spending. Apart from this, the reserve that Chávez stored when the price of the barrel was above US$ 100 is coming to an end. He strongly depends on a rise in the oil barrel price.

In Ecuador, president Rafael Correa’s challenge will be to maintain his popularity (around 58% according to the last surveys). As in Venezuela, the country is expected to face future economical troubles.

Inside the Bolivarian Block, attention has been turned to Bolivia. After the results of the last presidential election, the Movimiento al Socialismo (Socialist Movement) – the party of president Evo Morales – conquered hegemony in the political system. MAS (Socialist Movement Party) not only controls the Chamber of Deputies, but also has the absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Thus, the sum of Morales popularity with the power conquered by MAS should strengthen the nationalist-indigenous project of the Bolivian Head of State. The tendency is that the so called “Bolivian Refoundation”, was barred by the Senate in many opportunities for advancing. Another factor that is helping Evo Morales is the lack of opposition articulation. We can expect a more radical government in Bolivia. This time, Morales will not have so many bureaucratic, political and judicial deadlocks preventing him from implementing changes in the new Constitution.

Domestic politics will develop in 2010 as they did in 2009 in all countries. Continental geopolitics may be confronted by different moves. The conclusion of military acquisitions by Brail (fighter planes, tanks, helicopters and submarines) will stimulate other countries to review their own military programs. Argentina, for example, is awaiting definitions regarding Brazil in order to initiate the process of their Armed Forces’ modernization. Rumor has it that the choice of fighter planes Brazil makes will directly affect the choice the Argentinean Air Force makes. Ecuador is another country expected to modernize its Armed Forces. This does not mean we are living in a worrying moment, but even more worrying are South American countries with scrapped armed forces, which is the current situation. MERCOSUR will enter a new phase in 2010. With the entrance of Venezuela, political themes will naturally be part of the block’s agenda. This may jeopardize the survival of MERCOSUR, as there is already a founding member (Uruguay), whose society is discussing whether participation is worthwhile or not.

BRAZIL AIMING AT A LEADING ROLE IN COPENHAGEN

By Thiago de Aragão (*)

Brazil, along with France, intends to leverage strong engagement from industrialized and developing countries in order to define bold agreements for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Both countries want an 80% reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases compared to levels in 1990. They have also agreed to a reduction of at least 50% by 2050.

Brazil’s main objective is to show its commitment to sustainable development and its level of concern about the emission of greenhouse gases. The actions proposed by Brazil are expected to promote a 36.1 to 38.9% reduction on the emissions the country would achieve by 2020 if nothing was done. Of this total, 20% will result from an 80% drop in deforestation of the Amazon. According to estimates by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Amazon deforestation levels in 2009 will be the lowest in the last 21 years, with a 40% reduction in comparison to last year’s numbers.

Furthermore, an agricultural/ecological zoning system was developed in order to supervise the expansion of sugar-cane crops for the production of Ethanol fuel. The system allowed an increase in the crop’s plantation area, while prohibiting expansion in protected areas like the Amazon and Pantanal.

The Brazilian strategy is becoming quite embarrassing for developed countries that are not environmentally active, forcing them to accept bolder goals for the Copenhagen Protocol. More than that, encouraging them to invest more financial resources to fight climate change in developing countries. The perception behind this change of focus is that Brazil can benefit a great deal from transitioning to a low carbon economy: after all, the country has one of the cleanest energy matrixes in the world, is a world-leader in biofuels and most of its emissions (illegal deforestation) is not linked to economic growth.

Brazil is also in favor of approving regulations that enable and popularize technologies that are still protected by patents, generally owned by wealthy countries. In order to foster technology transfers, the Brazilian government has already proposed the establishment of a multilateral public fund to invest in purchasing licenses for manufacturing products and using patent protected processes and equipment. The Brazilian committee will also argue that the intellectual property regime cannot have the sole objective of protecting the copyrights of inventors.

In Brazil’s view, developing countries should fully explore their national capacities for investments in the climate agenda. However, the country also states that there is a need for an increase in financing and technology transfers. The claim suggests that if these initiatives do not come from developed nations, it will become increasingly harder to face climate change while increasing economic and social development. The contribution from developed countries is not seen as a donation, but as an international obligation.

Changing its posture towards a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, Brazil wants to be the leading name behind an international pact to fight climate change. Even though Brazil’s International Relations seem to be in good shape, the Lula administration still needs the so-called international “big break”. Since 2003, the Brazilian President has been trying a series of diplomatic maneuvers that have not been as successful as expected.  In spite of the successful 2016 Olympic bid for Rio de Janeiro, one cannot forget the Honduras episode, in which Deposed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya took shelter in the Brazilian Embassy, inciting much controversy in international public opinion.

The Brazilian Government’s stand at the 15^th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change also has a lot to do with the 2011 presidential elections. Senator Marina Silva, known for her political influence on environmental issues, has left the Labor Party to run for President.

Losing her represented a significant imbalance for the party and the President, as her candidacy makes it harder for the Government to use comparisons between President Lula and ex-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s Government as an advantage for reelecting the party.

The presidential elections – though not admitted – influenced Brazil’s current stand in Copenhagen, because if the country’s campaign is successful, it would represent a powerful argument for President Lula’s candidate Dilma Rousseff in her battle against Marina Silva when it comes to environmental issues.