Bolivia: Government announced an agreement regarding compensation towards the nationalized Spanish company

More than a week after the announcement of the nationalization of the energy company, Transportadora de Eletricidade (TDE), the Bolivian government said it reached an agreement about a fair compensation to the Spanish company, Rede Elétrica (REE), responsible for TDE. The matter will still be submitted, however, to a series of assessments.

Last week, Bolivian President, Evo Morales, met with the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from Spain, Jesus Manuel Gracia, to negotiate the agreement. Talks between the Bolivian authorities, Spanish entrepreneurs and representatives lasted three days.

Morales decision to nationalize the electricity company surprised the Spaniards, who threatened to retaliate against the measure. In the last days however, the Bolivian foreign minister tried to minimize the tension.

On Feb. 1, Morales announced the nationalization of TDE. He said the decision was made due to low investment in the expansion of the National Interconnected System (SIN) of the energy supply in the country, and because it is government policy to recover the strategic enterprises that were privatized in the 1990s.

Bolivia: Evo Morales tries to contain indigenous mobilizations

Bolivian President, Evo Morales, has intensified his campaign against new indigenous protests that are heading for La Paz. The purpose of the mobilizations is, once again, demonstrate dissatisfaction with the decision of the Bolivian government to build a road on the Indian Territory Isiboro Secure National Park (Tipnis), which is an indigenous nature reserve. Trying to win support from public opinion, Morales flew along with the local and foreign journalists over Tipnis, showing the benefits of the work on this ecological reserve. The road that the government intends to build on Tipnis is designed to unite the central region of Cochabamba with the Amazon region of Beni, through half of the Tipnis population, rejects the proposal.
To resolve this impasse, Morales is in holding a referendum to be held on May 10. The vote will decide whether the indigenous will approve or not the construction of the road on Tipnis. Despite the initiatives of the Bolivian president to keep dialogue channels open and consult his primary voter base – the indigenous movement – there is strong resistances to approve the project driven by the executive branch.

BOLIVIA: Evo Morales reinforces nationalist discourse with his bases

The Bolivian President Evo Morales said that his followers must be convinced that “they came to power forever.” The demonstration took place during the inauguration of the eighth congress of his party, founded 17 years ago.

Speaking to the militants of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), his political party, Morales said that “anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist, anti-neoliberal reached the Palace not as tenants, but forever. According to the Bolivian president, this issue should be discussed by MAS.

As a way of trying to strengthen the internal unity in the party, Evo Morales said that the capitalist model is in crisis and is not a solution to the problems of humanity.

Morales won the first term in 2006 and was reelected president in 2010. The second government of indigenous leader runs until 2015, when he plans to run for a third term, which would last until the year 2020.

The Bolivian president has assured that he is entitled to another term as president with the argument that his first term does not count because it was not yet in force when the new Constitution was promulgated in 2009.

Bolivia: A rival arises for Evo Morales

The attack of radical sectors of the “Movimento ao Socialismo- MAS” (Socialism Movement, Evo Morales’s party) to the Bolivian ex president’s house, Víctor Hugo Cárdenas, will be able to make modifications in the local politic scenery. On March the 8^th, a group of peasants invaded and burned Cardenas’s residency with his family inside, luckily they were able to escape.

After this fact, the ex president announced he would run for president in the elections of December. On the contrary of other indigenous leaders, Cárdenas has national projection and for that, converted himself in reference for the opposition. In the recent referendum about the new constitution, he supported the “no” to the modifications.

Cárdenas pretends to be the leader of the indigenous people’s vote of middle class. According to the local press, the ex vice president classifies the actual government’s vision about indigenous people as racist and classisist. To his understanding, an indigenous doesn’t necessarily have to be poor nor illiterate.

According to those considerations, Cárdenas dreams in building an ideological proposal of national unity. He is as well, a strong critic of the Plurinational State defended by MAS, that according to his evaluation, is an anachronistic, fundamentalist and anti historical vision.

Different from the rest of the candidates, Víctor Hugo Cárdenas has possibilities of confronting Evo Morales. The ex vice is a respected intellectual and was a pioneer in the fight for the indigenous rights in Bolivia.

The months that precede the electoral dispute in the country are tense. There are rumors about ex-president Carlos Mesa’s house (2003- 2005) being a target for the radicals of MAS. The opponents evaluate that it would be a strategy to inhibit the opposition’s action during the elections.

BOLIVIA: Evo Morales says that “fat” affects Alan García

The president of Bolivia, Evo Morales, said that “too much fat is damaging” his Peruvian colleague, Alan García, who joined Haya’s International Court of Justice with a demand about maritime limits against Chile. For Bolivian’s Chief of State, García is looking to improve his political image through this action.

According to Efe agency, Morales’s critics were done during his speech in the city of Cochabamba, during the presentation of titles of properties of lands and peasants. “Maybe too much fat is affecting the president of Peru, Alan García, and he’s not well informed. Bolivia is never going to resign the return to the sovereign sea”, he affirmed.

The president remembered that Bolivia did not resign to have an exit to the sea and says that the subject is being discussed in reunions with the Chilean government. In Evo Morales’s evaluation, the demand presented by Peru in Haya affected one of the solutions analyzed with Chile so that the country could obtain and exit through the Pacific.

Bolivia: “Yes” victorious in Bolivian Referendum

Polls indicate that the ballot box “Yes” won the “No” constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The result was expected, based on the results that President Evo Morales`s popularity indicated.

According to the polls, the victory is around 60% against 40% . However, some mass media reported that the result was tighter: 51% to 49%. This last result is less reliable. 

The “yes” won in the provinces of Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro and Potosi while “no” won in Beni, Pando, Tarija and Santa Cruz de la Sierra. 

With this result we can expect a scenario of institutional difficulties, since it needs to approve the arrangements for implementation of the new Constitution in the National Congress, as well as political instability among the winners and political opponents. 

Controversial points of the new Constitution will be posted soon in this blog. 

P.S.: Comments are welcome.

Latin American Geopolitics: Bolivia

Bolivia has suffered even more turbulence in 2008 than Venezuela. But contrary to what happened with his neighbor and mentor, Evo Morales managed get out stronger in 2008. Through subtle, efficient negotiations, Mr. Morales managed to pacify his seemingly fierce opposition, at least for the time being. By dealing personally with many representatives, Mr. Morales managed to obtain from the Congress the approval he needed for his constitutional referendum. For this victory to come to pass, Mr. Morales enjoyed key affirmative votes of the opposition itself. This situation caused the Podemos, the main oppositionist party, to crack apart.

All attentions in 2009 will be drawn to the referendum scheduled for the 25^th of January, when president Evo Morales will try to enact the country’s new constitution. Mr. Morales successfully reversed the trend in support of the opposition and is now anticipated as the winner of the people’s referendum.

After that, the political forces in Bolivia will carry their agendas with a view to the presidential elections of December. Since the country’s political agenda is likely to dwell at political issues, the impact of the financial crisis may pose a serious obstacle.

Bolivia: Prisons in Tarija and Pando reunite opposition

Divided and with little mobilization power, the strike called by opposition in Tarija did not create much of a stir. A total suspension of activity was expected in the department that holds the largest natural gas reserves in Bolivia.

However, the decision by Evo Morales’ government to take civic leaders, involved in attempts against the gas line in September’s conflicts, into preventive custody has the potential to reorganize and reunite regional opposition.

The opinion of local political analysts is that the use of force indicates a lack of authority. Through this, the more radical department representatives, who have rejected agreements signed with the government, have an opportunity to gain new supporters.

The Executive power has made yet another mistake. Each time that force is put in use, it creates signs of debility. In addition to mobilizing opposition, it creates space for the emergence of new political players.

As a consequence, the opinion is that in 2009 the government will not have a simple outlook ahead, as it will be facing a unified opposition. In addition, President Evo Marales’ adversaries know that a joint effort in the constitutional referendum in January will be easier than in the general elections in December, when all of the players will choose to be candidates, causing difficulty in the construction of collective objectives.

For all these reasons, the referendum campaign tends to be very intense. Even with the power of the machine and the support of social movement on behalf of the government, the scenario is indefinite. Research shows that around 20% of voters are undecided. Therefore, the current trend is that the victory of “Yes” or “No” to the new Constitution project will be by a marginal difference. 

Bolivia: The impact of Obama`s victory

Bolivia lives a scenario of tension with the U.S.. The President Evo Morales last month expelled the American ambassador in La Paz, Philip Goldberg, and the end of last week suspended the operations of the U.S. Department of Drugs (DEA). In both cases, alleged political interference in favor of their opponents. 

Barack Obama will have a big challenge in Bolivia. Even promissing to seek dialogue with the region, Morales will use nationalist sentiment as a way to promote social movements that support him politically. It is still uncertain as is the relationship between the two nations.

Bolivia: Agreement splits opposition

His influence on social movements and the power of his government give Evo Morales a competitive edge over the opposition in the run-up to the referendum. Unlike a few months ago, the Bolivian Chief of State has never been so close to “re-founding” his nation.

Domestically, the opposition is expected to become more isolated. The Podemos, the main opposition party, may have led the agreement, but some regional leaders are angry. Thus, it is still unknown how opposition departments will react. There could be a truce until the vote, but after that there’s no way of projecting what can occur.

When trying to prevent an opposition split-up, the Mayor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, said that this is the moment for a broad front to unite and challenge the government. But the Mayor of Beni, Ernesto Suárez, believes that the subject of autonomy was treated in the agreement in a way that betrayed the regions.