Uruguay: Prospects for the Presidential Election in October
With the end of the primaries, presidential candidates Jose Mujica (Frente Ampla), Luis Lacalle (Partido Nacional) and Pedro Bordaberry (Partido Colorado) will intensify their campaigns. Given the popularity of the Tabare Vazquez administration – 56% approval rating – Mujica enters the race as the favorite. Trying to soften resistance along more conservative sectors, Mujica – a former guerilla leader – has been promising income redistribution policies in conjunction with responsible management of the economy. His candidacy favors Frente Ampla, for he was a critic of the current government at various stages, and is therefore able to sidestep unfavorable opinions regarding the current president, Tabare Vazquez. On the other hand, he is seen as a “radical” by the voters in the center and the right.
Evidence indicates that Mujica’s main opponent will be former president Luis Lacalle, of the Partido Nacional, a member of the opposition. He is the furthest to the right in the Uruguayan political spectrum. Unlike Frente Ampla, which is traditionally more geared towards interventionism, Lacalle’s party hosts more liberal ideas.
Because he disputes the same electorate as the Partido Nacional, Pedro Bordaberry, of the Partido Colorado, will have difficulties in this election. The race is expected to come down to Frente Ampla and Partido Nacional. As the Nacional and Colorado parties should both be in the race in the eventual 2nd round, Frente Ampla’s strategy is to win the election in the first round, so as to avoid risk.
In 2004, in the last presidential dispute, Tabare Vazquez received 50.45% of valid votes and was elected in the 1st round. Partido Nacional came in second place with 34.30% and Partido Colorado came in third with 10.36%.
As was the case that year, the trend is that if Frente Ampla wins in the 1st round, it will be by a small margin. Though it is still early for projections, backstage in the Uruguayan political scene, many feel that if the election heads to the 2nd round, the government coalition can be defeated by Partido Nacional.
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